Challenge the Working Hypothesis
The work of the CIA analyst would be to pull together every one of the expertise and evidence for a provided subject and offer an solution up to a policy makerвЂ™s question. An analyst develops a functional theory based on intercepts, individual cleverness operations, photographs and videos, as well as other channels of data. This theory then drives further number of information.
When it comes to the Bin Laden manhunt, the questions had been: just how would he be hiding? Where? Just What protection would he use? The working theory had been that he had been found in the tribal areas in Western Pakistan, most likely in a cave or even a rural area, divided from their family members. The theory had been that well-armed guards surrounded him. There is additionally an indicator that their wellness ended up being failing and therefore he may have now been hooked as much as a makeshift renal dialysis device.
Yet our lead that is new suggested Bin Laden had been staying in a property within the suburbs, together with his spouses, young ones, as well as 2 other families, hooked as much as satellite tv.
Could this beвЂ” that is possible almost anything concerning the working theory might be incorrect?
Thinking that Bin Laden was at that residential district property needed us to shed our most elementary presumptions about how exactly he’d run.
We assumed he’d deem it unsafe to call home along with other families, whoever kiddies left the substance every to go to school day.
We assumed he will never desire to live near a compound that is military helicopters travelled overhead most times. Continue reading “The head that is former of CIA on Managing the look for Bin Laden”